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FEBRUARY 21,  2016

SHORT TAKES ON THE DRIFTING WRECKAGE – AT 11:55 P.M. ET:

THIS JUST IN – From the Las Vegas Review-Journal:  Britney Spears' manager Larry Rudolph insists the pop star was "by no means endorsing" Hillary Clinton when Spears posted photos of herself posing with the Democratic presidential candidate last week.  Rudolph said he initiated the meeting, which took place Thursday in Clinton's suite at Caesars Palace.  "Hillary was in town," Rudolph said. "I got connected with one of her top aides, whom I spoke to. Hillary said she really wanted to meet Britney, and Britney really wanted to meet her."  Several photos of the meeting were posted on Spears' Instagram account, but #ImWithHer, Clinton's social media hashtag, was quickly deleted.  What does Hillary do now?  There's an old political saying, "If you've lost Britney Spears, you've lost."  How does something like this happen?  How does Hillary explain it?  Britney Spears controls the election.

GREAT MOMENT IN EDUCATION – From London's Daily Mail:  Head of £33,000-a-year girls' boarding school says boys should wear princess dresses and girls dress up as firemen as she calls for 'gender neutral' parenting.   The headmistress of a £33,000-a-year girls' boarding school has called for parents to bring up their children in a 'gender neutral' way so that youngsters can try out 'male' and 'female' roles.  Heathfield school's Jo Heywood believes one of the benefits of gender neutral parenting is that it would produce girls confident about entering careers such as science and engineering, traditionally regarded as a man's world.  I can't wait to go to their senior prom.

TRUMP REJECT INDEPENDENT BID, SORT OF – From The Hill:   Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump said on Sunday that it's "highly highly unlikely" that he will launch a third-party campaign.  Trump added, however, that the Republican National Committee (RNC) is not honoring the pledge he signed last year.  "The pledge is the pledge," Trump said on "Fox News Sunday."  "I signed a pledge. I'm a Republican. I'm the leading Republican by a lot and that's where I want to be. I don't want to run as an independent. I'm not going to be doing that. I think it's highly highly unlikely."  We'll see how unlikely it is if Trump gets angry at the party, which will probably happen if he loses the nomination. 

February 21,  2016     Permalink

OBAMA REFUSED TO ATTEND JUSTICE SCALIA'S FUNERAL – QUOTE OF THE DAY - AT 11:08 A.M. ET:  Justice Scalia's funeral was yesterday.  It was attended by much of official Washington.  One man was noticeably absent – the president of the United States.  Derek Hunter comments at Townhall, in our quote of the day:

With President Obama’s public refusal to attend the funeral service for Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, he demeans the office in a way that transcends politics and exposes him as a small man who never grew into his job.

There are a lot of perks when you’re president. Your every whim is catered to – a kitchen staff on call, butlers, Air Force One, access to the rich, powerful and famous, living in the White House, and so on.

With that lifestyle comes certain responsibilities. The constitutional ones are obvious and enumerated. Beyond those are duties inherent in the office which, although sometimes unpleasant, are no less important.

The most important intrinsic duty of the president is to represent the people of the United States, not in policy but in person. The president can’t get drunk and stumble around in public, for example. That would be universally panned as beneath the dignity of the office.

Yet, other events, perhaps undignified on the surface, are simply tradition and “part of the job.” Every Thanksgiving the president holds a press conference, delivers a pointless speech, pardons a couple of turkeys and sends them off to live the rest of their lives on a farm somewhere. There are about a million things any president would rather be doing. But that has become part of the job, so they have to do it.

Another thing the president must do is show up at events that matter, that are markers in history, and to represent the American people because we can’t attend.

The president represents us at important, and sometimes only symbolic, events.

President Obama shows up only when he wants up, only when it matters to him. The funeral of Nelson Mandela – he was there. The funeral of Margaret Thatcher – he couldn’t be bothered. Both were important figures in world history; only one was crucial in winning the Cold War.

The president has no interest in fighting terrorism beyond what he must do. Therefore, after the attack on the offices of Charlie Hebdo, when world leaders united and marched in solidarity to honor the victims, Barack Obama was uninterested.

A stalwart conservative justice of the Supreme Court dies in office, and even though every time in American history a sitting Supreme Court justice died in office the president attended the funeral, Barack Obama can’t be bothered.

COMMENT:  So well said.  A little man, just like Jimmy Carter.  Unequipped for the office.  Much ego.  No class.

February 21, 2016        Permalink

WISDOM FROM NEWT – AT 10:28 A.M. ET:  The former speaker, and a very astute political observer, warns that it's time to take Donald Trump seriously.  From the Washington Examiner: 

Newt Gingrich has a message for the GOP in Washington:  Start taking Donald Trump seriously.

Appearing on Fox News after Trump's Saturday win in South Carolina, the former speaker of the House argued that "nobody" in the Washington Republican political class "should kid themselves" about Trump's chances any longer.

"It is a huge night for Donald Trump and nobody should kid themselves. Here's a guy who seven months ago for the first time entered electoral politics, has learned at an extraordinary rate," Gingrich said, pointing to his second-place finish in Iowa and victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina.

"By any reasonable standard, this is a decisive victory," Gingrich continued, adding that Trump is likely to win in Nevada on Tuesday. "What people need to get a grip on in the Washington establishment is their job is to understand Trump. His job isn't to understand them. They live in a world of ideas and details and policy programs and long papers and conferences and ideas. This guy lives in a world of making very big decisions, doing very big things, and I think you could start keeping a list."

"It's a very simple rule — if you think Washington is so sick you want someone to kick over the kitchen table, then you like Donald Trump and you frankly don't care about the details," Gingrich added.

COMMENT:  Newt is right, and I worry what happens after Trump kicks over the kitchen table.  Does he have a plan for repairing the kitchen, or is he just a kicker?

We note once again that 68% of the Republican voters in South Carolina did not vote for Trump.  There will be a stop-Trump movement, run by Rubio and Cruz, one of whom will emerge as Trump's logical challenger.  "Stop" movements rarely work.  This one can.  It is going to get very brutal in the weeks ahead.  Expect no kindness from anyone.

February 21,  2016     Permalink 

STARTLING – AT 9:59 A.M. ET:  Hillary Clinton, in her speech yesterday acknowledging victory in the Nevada caucuses, made a startling statement.  It was directed right at young voters:

I want to say this to all the young people out there. I know what you're up against if you left college with a ton of loans, it's not enough just to make college more affordable. You need help right now with the debt you already have.

That's why I have a plan to cut your interest rates and cap payments so you never have to pay more than you can afford.

But I want you to think about this. It can't be just about what we're going to give to you. It has to be about we're going to build together. Your generation is the most tolerant and connected our country has ever seen. In the days ahead, we will propose new ways for more Americans to get involved in national service and give back to our communities, because every one of us has a role to play in building the future we want.

Washington is never going to have all the answers, but for every problem we face somewhere someone in America is solving it. And we need you to be part of that exciting journey we can make together.

COMMENT:   Of course, Clinton was channeling Jack Kennedy's, "My fellow Americans, ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."  That is not a primary-campaign statement.  It's a general-election-campaign statement. 

I wonder if Clinton, who has some friendly territory ahead in South Carolina and elsewhere, believes that she's overcoming the danger from Bernie Sanders and is now on her way to the nomination.  I wonder if she's starting to pivot, to attract the wider audience needed to win in November.

Her comment was directed at young people who've defected to Bernie, who, after all, is offering a lot of free stuff that he can't pay for.

Just wonderin'.  But don't be shocked if Clinton starts campaigning as if she already has the nomination. 

February 21,  2016     Permalink

FEBRUARY 20,  2016

NO "SHORT TAKES" TONIGHT, AS WE ARE CAREFULLY WATCHING THE RETURNS IN SOUTH CAROLINA.

BULLETIN:  TRUMP WINS IN SOUTH CAROLINA, BUSH DROPS OUT – AT 10:58 P.M. ET:

With 99% of the vote in, Trump has 32.5%, Rubio is in second place with 22.5%, and Cruz is in third with 22.3%.  It's conceivable Rubio and Cruz could change places when all the votes are counted.  Essentially they're tied.

Yes, Trump won, but is that a famous victory?  Only 32.5%.  He never seems to get out of the low- or mid-thirties.  Not too great, I'd say.  

Jeb Bush has withdrawn.  I'd hope that John Kasich and Dr. Ben Carson do the right thing and withdraw as well.  That would leave a three-man race, and it would get hot and bitter.  Cruz and Rubio would compete to be the anointed challenger to Trump, and Trump would try to destroy both of them.  A three-man race could easily result in a three-way split, or nearly a three-way split.

A major complication:  After March 15th, as I understand it, GOP rules require primaries to be winner-take-all, either by state or Congressional district.  That makes it much easier for Trump, if he maintains any kind of lead. 

The great majority of voters in Republican primaries have not voted for Trump.  Tonight, some 68% of South Carolina Republicans voted for someone else.  Those numbers call into question the design of this system.  Did anyone anticipate a race which began with 17 candidates on the debate stage?  Did anyone anticipate a "frontrunner" who isn't even a member of the Republican Party?

Within one month both Republican and Democratic nominations could be decided.  On the other hand, we could have an open convention in one or both parties.  Or Mike Bloomberg could get in as an independent and change the dynamics of the election.

An incredible election year.  I wish we had a Reagan.  We don't, and it's the nation's loss. 

February 20, 2016        Permalink 

BULLETIN:  CLINTON WINS NEVADA – AT 6:21 P.M. ET:  From Fox:

Hillary Clinton won the Nevada Democratic caucuses on Saturday, Fox News projects, beating Bernie Sanders and breathing new life into her campaign just a week-and-a-half after she lost to Sanders by double-digits in New Hampshire.

Though the victory appears to be a narrow one, Clinton is hoping the win will serve to undercut Sanders's momentum as they head next into several delegate-heavy contests.

"To everyone who turned out in every corner of Nevada with determination and heart: This is your win. Thank you," Clinton tweeted after the race was called.

With 75 percent of precincts reporting in Nevada, Clinton has 52 percent to Sanders' 48 percent.

Sanders congratulated Clinton on her victory in Nevada’s closely-contested caucuses, and said he looked forward to the primaries and caucuses ahead.

COMMENT:  Clinton dodged a major political bullet, and this should help her solidify a big win next Saturday when Democrats vote in South Carolina.

The upcoming primaries are mostly in Hillary-friendly states.  But looming is the FBI investigation.  Wouldn't it be interesting if Hillary knocked out Bernie, but then got knocked out herself by the FBI probe, and the Dems brought in Joe Biden?  Good movie.

February 20, 2016       Permalink

WHILE WE VOTE – AT 12:18 P.M. ET:  A dangerous world gets more dangerous as America attends to electing a president.  From London's Daily Mail: 

Chinese state media have urged their national military to fire warning shots and deliberately ram U.S. warships that sail too close to their footholds in the disputed South China Sea.

U.S. ship Curtis Wilbur came within 12 nautical miles of Triton Island in the Paracels last month, catapulting tensions in the oil-rich region to an all-time high.

The commentary article declared China must 'teach the US a lesson' if they continue intruding on China's rightful territory, reports SCMP.

The Paracels have been under Chinese rule for over 40 years, deeming them the most fundamentally important foothold for China to defend, the article claimed.

The author proposed the American presence in the Paracels was intended to 'oppose China for the sake of opposing' – which called for 'proper toughness and deterrence.'

It comes after U.S satellite images surfaced this week showing advanced air defence missile system on Woody Island in the Paracels, igniting concerns over China's militarisation.

COMMENT:  That comes from state media, meaning that the article had the approval of the government.

China is building its military in a clear attempt to challenge American supremacy in the Pacific.  Field Marshal Obama promised a "pivot" to Asia in our military policy, but we haven't seen much pivoting.  In fact, we're cutting our defenses. 

When we flash weakness, potential enemies will see an opening.  That's how wars get started.

February 20, 2016       Permalink

SOUTH CAROLINA AND NEVADA VOTE – AT 11:30 A.M. ET:   This is a major political day.  The Republicans vote in the South Carolina primary.  In politics, South Carolina is sometimes called "the gateway to the South."  The Democrats caucus in Nevada.  The fear in the Clinton camp is that Bernie Sanders might upset Hillary in Nevada, casting even further doubt about her candidacy.

It is almost universally expected that Donald Trump will win the South Carolina Republican primary.  The question is, by how much?  Trump is called the frontrunner, but that's only because the anti-Trump vote is currently divided among five candidates – Cruz, Rubio, Kasich, Bush, and Carson.  If Trump were running against just one candidate, the primary results might well be dramatically different. 

Trump is polling from the mid-thirties to the high-twenties in South Carolina.  If he comes in at the low end, that's not very impressive.  A frontrunner who consistently runs in, say, the low thirties, is not showing the kind of progress that leads to victory.

Watch for who comes in second and third, and how far apart they are.  It is expected, barring a big surprise, that Cruz and Rubio will occupy those positions, but the order is far from certain.  Some observers feel that Rubio has surged in recent days, as he did in New Hampshire. 

Super Tuesday is March 1st, right around the corner.  Will Trump get a big boost from South Carolina today, or will pundits start wondering whether he's hit a ceiling?  Will the guy in second place today go into Super Tuesday as the pundit-anointed "main challenger" to Trump? 

On the Dem side, the Nevada caucuses today will lead to the Democratic South Carolina primary next Saturday.  Polls show that Bernie can possibly take Nevada, although not by much.  But Hillary continues to hold a commanding lead in South Carolina, with its large African-American population.  That lead has narrowed over the weeks.  The key:  Will a Bernie victory today lead to further erosion by Hillary in next week's South Carolina vote?  If that happens, can Hillary still make a serious case for the nomination?

Joe Biden waits in the wings.

Mike Bloomberg waits in the wings. 

Watch those wings carefully.  Americans do not, right now, seem thrilled by their choices.

February 20, 2016       Permalink 

ANNIVERSARY – 11 MONTHS TO GO – AT 10:58 A.M. ET:  The good news is that President Obama leaves office 11 months from today.  The bad news is that we still have 11 months left of this make-believe presidency.

We look forward to the countdown on the 20th of each month.  But let's not be too starry-eyed.  Obama is not a lame duck.  He continues to do enormous damage with executive actions and, in particular, with his adolescent foreign policy.  Now we will see him visiting Cuba, paying homage to the Castro boys.  I'm sure he was raised and nurtured with the idea that they are great agrarian reformers, targeted by right-wing America.  Then he will visit Vietnam.  I'm certain he was raised and nurtured with the idea that Vietnam was a victim of American imperialism and the industrial-military complex. 

Cuba and Vietnam are both dictatorships.  Obama will say a few words about human rights in each country, but he doesn't seem to care.  Human rights are not much of a deal on the left, where Obama resides. 

Iran is now rising rapidly, and buying modern weapons from nations more than eager for the business.   The Iranians now have the cash, thanks to the nuclear deal they made with the West, which included releasing tens of billions of dollars for the use of the Iranian mullahs.   Iran is already violating international agreements with its missile programs, but Obama barely notices.  He undoubtedly believes that Iran is an innocent victim of American intrigue.

So let us count down, but let us also realize that Obama, as someone once said of a British politician, is a bull who brings his own China shop with him.  The most dangerous period will come after our election in November, when Obama no longer has to worry about the effect his actions have on the Democratic Party.  He can literally go crazy, and there'll be nothing to stop him until inauguration day next January.

February 20,  2016     Permalink